CRISIS ACTIVE — Hormuz Closure Week 6
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BRENT CRUDE: US$109.24/bbl (+52.4%)WTI CRUDE: US$106.82/bbl (+49.1%)SINGAPORE MOGAS 95: US$89.14/bbl (+38.2%) — AU RETAIL LEADING INDICATORAUD/USD: 0.6234 (-4.8%) — WEAKER AUD = MORE EXPENSIVE FUELNATIONAL ULP AVG: 234.8¢/L (+33%)NATIONAL DIESEL AVG: 287.6¢/L (+59.5%)SHIPS INBOUND: 56 vessels | FUEL INBOUND: 332 MLDIESEL RESERVES: 332 ML | DAYS COVER: 2.6d inboundSTATION OUTAGES: 312 diesel | 400 petrolSYDNEY: ULP 228¢ | DIESEL 305.8¢MELBOURNE: ULP 233¢ | DIESEL 275¢BRISBANE: ULP 236¢ | DIESEL 280¢PERTH: ULP 222.3¢ | DIESEL 305.2¢HORMUZ STRAIT: ~16 TRANSITS/DAY (NORMAL: 130) — 12% CAPACITY — WEEK 6NATIONAL FUEL SECURITY PLAN: LEVEL 2 | IRAN TRANSIT FEE: US$2M/TANKERNEXT ARRIVAL: CL AGATHA CHRISTIE → MELBOURNE (ETA 5 Apr)BRENT CRUDE: US$109.24/bbl (+52.4%)WTI CRUDE: US$106.82/bbl (+49.1%)SINGAPORE MOGAS 95: US$89.14/bbl (+38.2%) — AU RETAIL LEADING INDICATORAUD/USD: 0.6234 (-4.8%) — WEAKER AUD = MORE EXPENSIVE FUELNATIONAL ULP AVG: 234.8¢/L (+33%)NATIONAL DIESEL AVG: 287.6¢/L (+59.5%)SHIPS INBOUND: 56 vessels | FUEL INBOUND: 332 MLDIESEL RESERVES: 332 ML | DAYS COVER: 2.6d inboundSTATION OUTAGES: 312 diesel | 400 petrolSYDNEY: ULP 228¢ | DIESEL 305.8¢MELBOURNE: ULP 233¢ | DIESEL 275¢BRISBANE: ULP 236¢ | DIESEL 280¢PERTH: ULP 222.3¢ | DIESEL 305.2¢HORMUZ STRAIT: ~16 TRANSITS/DAY (NORMAL: 130) — 12% CAPACITY — WEEK 6NATIONAL FUEL SECURITY PLAN: LEVEL 2 | IRAN TRANSIT FEE: US$2M/TANKERNEXT ARRIVAL: CL AGATHA CHRISTIE → MELBOURNE (ETA 5 Apr)

INTELLIGENCE FEED

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Billionaire Gina Rinehart says ‘I don’t understand’ arrest of Ben Roberts-Smith over alleged war crimes

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WHY THIS MATTERS
  • Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel from Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia
  • Only 2 refineries remain operational: Viva Geelong (VIC) and Ampol Lytton (QLD)
  • Australia has been non-compliant with IEA 90-day reserve targets since 2012
  • Government released 762 million litres from emergency reserves on 13 March 2026
KEY POLICY RESPONSES
  • Fuel excise halved for 3 months from 1 April 2026
  • Anthea Harris appointed Fuel Supply Taskforce Coordinator on 19 March
  • National Fuel Security Plan activated at Level 2 ("Keep Australia Moving")
  • US supply route negotiations underway — first cargoes expected late April
WHAT TRIGGERED THE CRISIS
  • Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field in late February 2026
  • Iran retaliated against 4 Gulf nations' energy infrastructure
  • Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since late February 2026
  • China and Thailand banned fuel exports; Singapore refineries under force majeure
CRISIS TIMELINE
Late Feb 2026
Israel strikes Iran's South Pars gas field
24 Feb 2026
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed
13 Mar 2026
Australia releases 762ML emergency reserves
19 Mar 2026
Fuel Supply Taskforce Coordinator appointed
30 Mar 2026
Fuel excise halved for 3 months
1 Apr 2026
Excise reduction takes effect
5 Apr 2026
NOW: 29d diesel, 39d petrol remaining
Late Apr 2026
First US supply cargoes expected