CRISIS ACTIVE — Hormuz Closure Week 6
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BRENT CRUDE: US$109.24/bbl (+52.4%)◆WTI CRUDE: US$106.82/bbl (+49.1%)◆SINGAPORE MOGAS 95: US$89.14/bbl (+38.2%) — AU RETAIL LEADING INDICATOR◆AUD/USD: 0.6234 (-4.8%) — WEAKER AUD = MORE EXPENSIVE FUEL◆NATIONAL ULP AVG: 234.8¢/L (+33%)◆NATIONAL DIESEL AVG: 287.6¢/L (+59.5%)◆SHIPS INBOUND: 56 vessels | FUEL INBOUND: 332 ML◆DIESEL RESERVES: 332 ML | DAYS COVER: 2.6d inbound◆STATION OUTAGES: 312 diesel | 400 petrol◆SYDNEY: ULP 228¢ | DIESEL 305.8¢◆MELBOURNE: ULP 233¢ | DIESEL 275¢◆BRISBANE: ULP 236¢ | DIESEL 280¢◆PERTH: ULP 222.3¢ | DIESEL 305.2¢◆HORMUZ STRAIT: ~16 TRANSITS/DAY (NORMAL: 130) — 12% CAPACITY — WEEK 6◆NATIONAL FUEL SECURITY PLAN: LEVEL 2 | IRAN TRANSIT FEE: US$2M/TANKER◆NEXT ARRIVAL: CL AGATHA CHRISTIE → MELBOURNE (ETA 5 Apr)◆BRENT CRUDE: US$109.24/bbl (+52.4%)◆WTI CRUDE: US$106.82/bbl (+49.1%)◆SINGAPORE MOGAS 95: US$89.14/bbl (+38.2%) — AU RETAIL LEADING INDICATOR◆AUD/USD: 0.6234 (-4.8%) — WEAKER AUD = MORE EXPENSIVE FUEL◆NATIONAL ULP AVG: 234.8¢/L (+33%)◆NATIONAL DIESEL AVG: 287.6¢/L (+59.5%)◆SHIPS INBOUND: 56 vessels | FUEL INBOUND: 332 ML◆DIESEL RESERVES: 332 ML | DAYS COVER: 2.6d inbound◆STATION OUTAGES: 312 diesel | 400 petrol◆SYDNEY: ULP 228¢ | DIESEL 305.8¢◆MELBOURNE: ULP 233¢ | DIESEL 275¢◆BRISBANE: ULP 236¢ | DIESEL 280¢◆PERTH: ULP 222.3¢ | DIESEL 305.2¢◆HORMUZ STRAIT: ~16 TRANSITS/DAY (NORMAL: 130) — 12% CAPACITY — WEEK 6◆NATIONAL FUEL SECURITY PLAN: LEVEL 2 | IRAN TRANSIT FEE: US$2M/TANKER◆NEXT ARRIVAL: CL AGATHA CHRISTIE → MELBOURNE (ETA 5 Apr)◆

FUEL PRICE MONITOR

Global commodity benchmarks · Australian retail prices · Price prediction model

BRENT CRUDE
US$109.24/bbl
+52.4%
ICE Futures Europe
WTI CRUDE
US$106.82/bbl
+49.1%
NYMEX
SINGAPORE MOGAS 95
US$89.14/bbl
+38.2%
AU retail leading indicator
AUD/USD
0.6234
-4.8%
Weaker AUD = more expensive fuel
NATIONAL ULP AVG
234.8¢/L
+33%
Since crisis (was 176.5¢)
NATIONAL DIESEL AVG
287.6¢/L
+59.5%
Since crisis (was 180.2¢)
WHY SINGAPORE MOGAS 95 MATTERS: This is the primary benchmark that determines Australian wholesale fuel prices, with a 1–2 week lag to retail. When Mogas 95 drops, expect Australian retail prices to follow within 2 weeks. Current: US$89.14/bbl — needs to fall below US$65/bbl for meaningful retail relief.
PRICE HISTORY — CRISIS ONSET TO NOW (FEB–APR 2026)
20 Feb27 Feb6 Mar13 Mar20 Mar27 Mar3 Apr5 Apr0751502253000306090120
  • ULP (¢/L)
  • Diesel (¢/L)
  • Brent (US$/bbl)
  • Mogas95 (US$/bbl)
AU RETAIL PRICE FORMULA
Singapore Mogas 95
US$89.14/bbl
÷ 158.99 L/bbl = 56.1¢/L
AUD/USD conversion
÷ 0.6234
= 90.0¢/L AUD
Refinery/freight margin
+8.5¢/L
shipping + terminal
Fuel excise (halved)
+19¢/L
was 38¢, halved 1 Apr
GST (10%)
+10%
on total
Retail margin
+~14¢/L
retailer margin
ESTIMATED RETAIL (ULP)234.8¢/L
Pre-crisis: 176.5¢/L · 1–2 week lag from Mogas95 to retail
WHAT-IF SCENARIO CALCULATOR

Click a scenario to see estimated retail price impact

SUPPLY SOURCE BREAKDOWN — PRE-CRISIS vs NOW
Singapore
Pre-crisis: 54.7%Now: 18.2%-36.5%
South Korea
Pre-crisis: 22.5%Now: 31.4%+8.9%
India
Pre-crisis: 11.5%Now: 22.8%+11.3%
Malaysia
Pre-crisis: 10%Now: 14.6%+4.6%
US Gulf Coast
Pre-crisis: 1.3%Now: 13%+11.7%

Singapore's share has collapsed due to Hormuz closure impact on regional refinery feedstock. South Korea, India, and US Gulf Coast are filling the gap.

CAPITAL CITY PRICES
SydneyNSW
● LIVE
ULP
228¢
+35.6%
DIESEL
305.8¢
+74.5%
MelbourneVIC
◎ EST
ULP
233¢
+36.3%
DIESEL
275¢
+54.1%
BrisbaneQLD
◎ EST
ULP
236¢
+32.4%
DIESEL
280¢
+53.8%
PerthWA
● LIVE
ULP
222.3¢
+26%
DIESEL
305.2¢
+69.7%
AdelaideSA
◎ EST
ULP
235¢
+38.9%
DIESEL
286¢
+62.1%
CanberraACT
◎ EST
ULP
224¢
+29.9%
DIESEL
272¢
+52.9%
HobartTAS
◎ EST
ULP
238¢
+32.1%
DIESEL
281¢
+52.2%
DarwinNT
◎ EST
ULP
255¢
+31.8%
DIESEL
296¢
+49.3%
Regional AUVarious
◎ EST
ULP
275¢
+45%
DIESEL
330¢
+85%
DIESEL PRICES BY CITY (¢/L)
SydneyMelbourneBrisbanePerthAdelaideCanberraHobartDarwin200230260290320
PRICE DATA SOURCES: NSW FuelCheck API (live) · WA FuelWatch (live) · AIP Terminal Gate Prices · ACCC Weekly Monitoring · OilPriceAPI (Brent/WTI) · Alpha Vantage (AUD/USD) · Singapore Exchange (Mogas95)