ALERT CENTRE

Real-time threshold monitoring · 6 active alerts

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FUEL MARKET CRASH RISK ANALYSISRISK SCORE: 87/100

SUPPLY PIPELINE STATUS

Global production available for export30%

Loaded onto tankers for Asia-Pacific15%

Routed to Australia2%

Arrives at Australian terminal1.5%

Distributed to retail (you can buy it)1%

⚠ Of every 100 units produced, only ~1 reach an Australian pump. Pre-crisis: ~7.5. That is an 87% collapse.

CRASH SIGNAL INDICATORS

Hormuz Closure Duration

Week 6 — no reopening signals

CRITICAL

Asian Refinery Capacity

50% — Singapore under force majeure

CRITICAL

Tanker Flow to AU

20% of normal — 87% pipeline collapse

CRITICAL

Domestic Refining

16% of demand — 2 refineries only

SEVERE

US Supply Route

Coming late April — 1.5% of demand

ELEVATED

Emergency Reserves

762ML released 13 Mar — depleting fast

SEVERE

IEA Compliance

Non-compliant since 2012 — 29d diesel vs 90d target

CRITICAL

Panic Buying Pressure

Demand 1.25× normal — Easter weekend risk

ELEVATED

MODEL PROJECTION: At current supply/demand rates, national reserves reach exhaustion around Week 3 (~19 April 2026). Government estimates are more conservative at 29–39 days. The gap between model and government estimates reflects uncertainty in panic buying rates and US supply route timing.This is a scenario model, not a guaranteed outcome. US supply cargoes arriving late April could significantly extend reserves.

ACTIVE ALERTS (6)

Diesel Days Cover Below 14CRITICAL

National diesel reserves have fallen below 14 days of supply coverage

Current

12 days (model)

Threshold

14 days

Triggered: 3 Apr, 07:00 am AEST

Petrol Days Cover Below 21SEVERE

National petrol reserves have fallen below 21 days of supply coverage

Current

15 days (model)

Threshold

21 days

Triggered: 2 Apr, 07:00 am AEST

Diesel Price Above 280 c/LSEVERE

National average diesel price has exceeded 280 cents per litre

Current

287.6 c/L

Threshold

280 c/L

Triggered: 1 Apr, 07:00 am AEST

Port Melbourne Arrivals CriticalCRITICAL

Melbourne port tanker arrivals have dropped to critical levels (≤2/month)

Current

2 arrivals (Mar)

Threshold

5+ arrivals

Triggered: 1 Apr, 01:00 am AEST

Brent Crude Above $100/bblSEVERE

Brent crude oil price has exceeded $100 per barrel

Current

US$109.24/bbl

Threshold

US$100/bbl

Triggered: 15 Mar, 07:00 am AEST

Station Outages Above 200 (Diesel)CRITICAL

More than 200 service stations nationally have reported diesel outages

Current

312 stations

Threshold

200 stations

Triggered: 3 Apr, 07:00 am AEST

WATCHING FOR (2)

Hormuz Strait ReopenedNOT YET TRIGGERED

AIS data shows resumption of normal tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz

Current

Closed (Week 6)

Will alert at

Open

Diesel Days Cover Below 7NOT YET TRIGGERED

EMERGENCY: National diesel reserves have fallen below 7 days — rationing imminent

Current

12 days (model)

Will alert at

7 days

STRAIT OF HORMUZ — LIVE TRAFFIC MONITOR

TRANSITS TODAY (EST)

~16

Normal: ~130/day

CAPACITY

12%

of pre-crisis

TREND vs LAST WEEK

+4

ships/day change

ATTACKS (7 DAYS)

0

confirmed incidents

CAPACITY UTILISATION12% of normal

0%50%100% (130 ships/day)

⚠ Iran imposing $2M transit fee per tanker. Chinese/Russian/Indian/Pakistani/Malaysian vessels allowed selectively.

FUEL PRICE CRASH SIGNAL CHECKLIST

Green signals = price relief coming. Red signals = further deterioration. 0/8 bullish signals triggered.

○

Strait of Hormuz transits > 50/day

Now: ~16/day→ 50/day

▼ PRICE

○

Ceasefire or formal diplomatic agreement

Now: No agreement→ Agreement signed

▼ PRICE

○

OPEC announces production increase

Now: No announcement→ Any increase

▼ PRICE

○

Singapore Mogas 95 drops > 5% in a week

Now: US$89.14/bbl→ <US$84.68/bbl

▼ PRICE

○

10+ tankers arrive at AU ports in a single week

Now: ~7/week avg→ 10+/week

▼ PRICE

○

US/coalition begins escorting tankers through Hormuz

Now: Not confirmed→ Escort confirmed

▼ PRICE

○

Brent drops below $90/bbl

Now: US$109.24/bbl→ <US$90/bbl

▼ PRICE

○

Australia fuel reserves exceed 40 days

Now: 29d diesel / 39d petrol→ 40d+ both

▼ PRICE

○

Diesel reserves below 7 days (EMERGENCY)

Now: 12d (model)→ <7 days

▲ RISK

○

Hormuz attacks resume (tanker struck)

Now: 0 attacks (7d)→ Any attack

▲ RISK

○

Second refinery closes or force majeure

Now: 2 operational→ 1 remaining

▲ RISK

○

Government declares Level 3 emergency rationing

Now: Level 2→ Level 3

▲ RISK

ABOUT ALERTS: Alert thresholds are based on publicly available data from DCCEEW, FuelSecurity.com.au, ABC News, and The Guardian. This dashboard is for situational awareness only and does not constitute financial or policy advice. Data is updated manually based on the latest available public sources. For the most current government data, visit dcceew.gov.au.